Research Prospectus: September 1998

JoAnn Hanowski - Program Manager and Principal Investigator

George Host, Lucinda Johnson, Carl Richards - Co- Principal Investigators

Natural Resources Research Institute, University of Minnesota-Duluth

5013 Miller Trunk Highway, Duluth, MN 55811

Mike Houser-Cooperator, Potlatch Corporation, Cloquet, MN

Steve Earley-Cooperator, Boise Cascade Corp., International Falls, MN

Jim Marshall-Cooperator, UPM-Blandin Company, Grand Rapids, MN

Tom Martinson-Cooperator, Lake County Land Department, Two Harbors, MN

Our objective is to compile existing or create new indicators of biodiversity, soil productivity and water quality and to incorporate these metrics into a decision support model that will predict forest and aquatic ecosystem health and sustainability under a variety of management scenarios. Using existing databases on forest birds, amphibians, aquatic insects and ecosystem conditions, we propose to integrate tools such as geographic information systems (GIS), satellite image analysis, multivariate statistical methods, and simulation models to create this management tool. Project investigators are currently documenting changes in terrestrial and aquatic species resulting from forest and agricultural management practices in several regions of Minnesota, therefore large data sets on birds and aquatic insects are on-hand. Other databases will be acquired and used in indicator development. Relevant GIS data layers also have been developed or acquired for Minnesota, including forest cover classification, elevation, hydrography, soils, surficial geology and wetland classification. Together the environmental and organismal data will be used to test existing indicators and develop new indicators where necessary.

Specific objectives of this project are to: 1) compile existing information for forest birds, amphibians, aquatic insects, and ecosystem conditions in three regions of Minnesota; 2) identify existing indicators or develop new indicators to measure ecosystem condition at appropriate spatial scales; 3) evaluate the influence of land use and underlying geology on these indicators under a variety of management scenarios and 4) bring this information together into a cohesive, workable decision making system that can be used by a variety of land planning agencies, industrial groups and private citizens.

Minnesota’s forest and water resources are important contributors to the well-being of citizens located throughout the state. Maintaining these vital resources is a common goal among Minnesota’s public because they provide a wide variety of benefits that contribute to the economy, local community and the natural environment. Measuring current, and predicting future forest and water resource health and sustainability is difficult because they are influenced by many factors (e.g., climate, geology, land use change, land management practices, soil type, natural disturbances) and complex interactions among these factors. In addition, coordinated planning for multiple-uses of these resources including resource management, tourism and recreation is difficult due to the existence of multiple regulatory bodies, existing land ownership patterns, and the inherent complexity of these ecosystems. Sound decisions regarding management of these systems is difficult because all of these factors must be considered simultaneously in an integrated fashion. This situation mandates the need to develop novel approaches to assess current, and to predict future conditions in forest ecosystems under different management scenarios.

We can begin to understand this complex picture by identifying the role that each factor (e.g., climate, natural disturbance) has and the scale on which they influence water and forest resource sustainability. Several ecological and physical data bases have been developed for Minnesota including a multiscale ecological classification of Minnesota (Ecological Classification System). Basic research on animal species has provided important information on distribution of these species, their response to environmental stress, and their relationship to stand and landscape features. Additional technological developments, including GIS, multivariate statistical methods, and spatially-explicit simulation models, provide analytical capabilities not previously available to integrate these data. This combination of spatial databases, statistical methods, and biotic databases provides the potential to develop predictive models and decision making tools for assessing the response of organisms to landscape conditions under a variety of management strategies and a method to assess water and forest resource health and sustainability.

Information for measuring forest and water resource health can be obtained directly by conducting a large number of individual measurements (a time-consuming and expensive procedure), or by compiling and analyzing existing data to identify important factors that will indicate ecosystem health. A large body of work has already been undertaken to quantify the response of sentinel organisms such as birds and aquatic insects to a range of environmental conditions.

Birds are key biological indicators of the health and stability of forest ecosystems and are relatively easy to study because their ecology is well known (Furness and Greenwood 1993). Breeding birds also represent 60 to 70% of the terrestrial species biological diversity in Minnesota’s forests. The highest species richness in North America occurs in Minnesota (Niemi et al. 1996). Current knowledge indicates that birds have a strong link to the forest economy due to their insectivorous habits and declines in numbers would result in a reduction in forest productivity.

Although less is known about how amphibian populations respond to different stressors, information on this group could provide the crucial link between water and forest systems. Amphibians make use of both land and water resources throughout their life cycle and we are just beginning to understand how amphibians use these resources and how they may be affected by forest and agricultural conditions.

The use of benthic invertebrates for environmental monitoring also has long history due to their reliability and effectiveness as environmental indicators(Cairns and Pratt 1993). They are an integral part of riverine systems and play a large role in detrital processing, nutrient cycling and are also an important food source for higher trophic levels such as fish and birds. Macroinvertebrates are commonly used by resource managers in environmental monitoring and as indicators of habitat and water quality.

Indicators developed by the Minnesota Environmental Indicators Initiative (MEII) will be incorporated with indicators developed by project investigators. Project investigators have participated in the development of indicators for the MEII for the state and in a pilot workshop in the SE Minnesota region. Consequently, the proposed work will fit well with this ongoing effort.

Investigators in this study have gathered a large data set on birds and aquatic insects in several Minnesota watersheds and are currently documenting changes in terrestrial and aquatic species due to a variety of forest and agricultural management practices. Wherever possible existing data from other sources will augment the databases used in the development of the environmental indicators. In addition, many GIS data layers have been acquired or developed for Minnesota including forest cover classification, elevation, hydrography, soils, surficial geology and wetland classification. These environmental databases will be used to quantify associations between environmental conditions and bird, amphibian and insect communities. We propose to integrate tools such as geographic information systems, satellite image analysis, multivariate statistical methods, and simulation models to predict forest ecosystem health and sustainability.

The overall objective of the project is to bring together the current environmental and biotic data bases for the regions of interest and to apply this knowledge in the development of indices that can be used to measure forest and water resource sustainability in a planning framework. This will be accomplished by: 1) compiling existing information for forest birds, amphibians, aquatic insects and ecosystem conditions in three regions of Minnesota; 2) compiling existing indicators or develop new indicators to measure ecosystem condition at appropriate spatial scales; 3) evaluating the influence of land use and underlying geology on these organisms under a variety of management scenarios and 4) bringing this information together into a cohesive, workable decision making system that can be used by a variety of land planning agencies, industrial groups, and private citizens. Specific hypotheses for this project will be formulated in the development of the metrics and evaluation of scale on these metrics (numbers 2 and 3 above).

III. Methods

Three regions of the State will be selected for detailed analysis. These regions will be selected within sections identified by the ecological classification system (ECS) in Minnesota (Figure 1). The three sections that we propose to develop comprehensive databases and models for are : 1) Northern Superior Uplands (northeast study area), 2) Minnesota and NE Iowa Morainal (southeast study area), and 3) Northern Minnesota Drift and Lake Plains (north central study area). A subsection or land type association (LTA) will be chosen within each section for detailed analyses. The specific subsection or LTA will be determined based on biotic data availability and the landscape scale determined to be most appropriate for each metric that will be developed (see below). The regions chosen represent a gradient corresponding to the percent of current and past land that is in forests and/or agriculture. For example, the northeast study area is primarily forested and only a small percent of the forests have been converted to agriculture. In contrast, in the southeast study area a high percentage of the forest has been converted for agricultural use.

IIIb. Database development

Researchers at the Natural Resources Research Institute (NRRI) have gathered extensive biotic (birds, amphibians, aquatic insects) data in several regions of Minnesota and are currently documenting changes in terrestrial and aquatic species due to a variety of forest and agricultural management practices. These include (but are not limited to the following: 1) Minnesota Forest Resources Council: Some baseline data on birds as well as GIS information have been gathered for three watersheds in northern Minnesota; 2) Environmental Protection Agency: A project to develop aquatic macroinvertebrate indicator species models including work in the Cannon and Zumbro Rivers in Minnesota; 3) Minnesota Forest Bird Diversity Initiative: GIS forest cover data for the forested area of Minnesota and landscape models for breeding birds; 4) United States Forest Service: Trend and habitat information for breeding birds in the Chippewa and Superior National Forests and effects of forest harvest and wetlands on aquatic insects in the Superior National Forest: 5) Great Lakes Protection Fund: Landuse data from the Great Lakes Watershed and priority indices for avian species conservation; 6) Minnesota Sea Grant: Land use influences on stream ecosystems in the Lake Superior Watershed.

Several GIS data layers are already available at NRRI for the study regions (Table 1).

Additional databases are available from; 1) The Minnesota Environmental Indicators Initiative (an LCMR funded project) has cataloged over 160 data bases; 2) forest products industries named as cooperators, 3) county and state agencies, 4) federal (U.S. Forest Service) and State (Minnesota DNR and County Biological Service) agencies, 5) Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, 6) other individual researchers as appropriate.

Using existing biotic data, we propose to integrate tools such as geographic information systems, satellite image analysis, multivariate statistical methods, and simulation models to develop indicators to predict forest ecosystem health and sustainability using forest birds, amphibians and aquatic insects. Metrics developed for each element will be linked to the forest resource base to provide a measure of forest health and water quality under various management scenarios. An example of a biodiversity metric for birds would not simply be species richness, but would include a value based on the conservation priority for each species (see Niemi et al. 1998).

Project investigators have development predictive models of the relationship between landscape elements and stream biota, including aquatic insects, in Minnesota and other parts of the Midwest. By measuring a select few variables that characterize watershed land use characteristics, geology and hydrology, we have been able to determine those factors that have strongest influence on the variation in aquatic insects and other aspects of stream ecosystems. An important aspect of this work has been the identification of stream characteristics more

influenced by natural variation in the environment as opposed to management influenced variation (see Richards et al. 1996, Richards et al. 1997). Models from these relationship can

provide strong tools for identifying the influence of land management on streams.

IIId. Integrate information into a GIS-based decision support system.

The spatial databases and biotic metric developed above will be integrated into a PC-based decision support system using the Environmental Management Decision Support (EMDS) system developed by the USDA Forest Service in conjunction with the Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) and Knowledge Garden, Inc. EMDS is an extension to the ARCVIEW geographic information system that allows incorporation of knowledge bases and boolean or fuzzy logic operators to make predictions on some target conditions. For example, one of the investigators is using EMDS to identify suitable habitats for regenerating white pine (Pinus strobus) in Northern Superior Uplands of northeastern Minnesota. Spatial databases are queried to identify sites as a function of slope, aspect, distance to water, presence of Ribes (alternate host of the white pine blister rust disease), degree of over story cover, and other factors. The resulting product is a map of habitat quality for white pine regeneration. In the same sense, the models and relationships developed in this study will be used to provide maps of biotic integrity of the avian, amphibian, and macroinvertebrate communities as a function of current and potential land management scenarios.

Results from this project will be to: 1) identify and compile existing data for specific biota and physical parameters in three regions of Minnesota; 2) develop metrics for biodiversity, soil productivity and water quality that can be used to assess ecosystem condition at different scales; and 3) simulate and then evaluate effects of land use changes on these metrics under a variety of management scenarios. These results will be used to develop the major product for this project, a decision making model that can be used by land managers for stand and landscape planning purposes.

We will complete result 1 by 30 January 2000 and initiate statistical analyses that will develop metrics at this time. Metrics will be developed by 30 September 2000. Simulation models will be completed by 30 December 2000 and the final decision support model will be developed and tested by 30 June 2001.

Researchers at the Natural Resources Research Institute have already gathered much of the information that will contribute to the database developed and used in this project. These include (but are not limited to the following: 1) Minnesota Forest Resources Council $120,000: Some baseline data on birds and aquatic insects as well as GIS information have been gathered for three watersheds in northern Minnesota. 2) Environmental Protection Agency $925,000: A project to develop aquatic macroinvertebrate indicator species models including work in the proposed site in SE Minnesota. 3) Minnesota Forest Bird Diversity Initiative $1,200,000: GIS forest cover data for the forested area of Minnesota and landscape models for breeding birds; 4) United States Forest Service $300,000: Trend and habitat information for breeding birds in the Chippewa and Superior National Forests, and $25,000: Effect of wetlands and forest harvest on stream insects. 5) Minnesota Sea Grant $94,828. 6) Lake Superior Decision Support Systems, $515,000: Development of detailed GIS databases and decision support tools for the Lake Superior Basin. 7) USFS Great Lakes Assessment $100,000: Development and data visualization and decision support tools for Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan.

We have developed a good working relationship with several forest product companies and Counties in northern Minnesota over the past 10 years. The companies and Counties have cooperated with us on several projects by: 1) providing property to conduct studies, 2) conducting forest experimental manipulations on these study areas, and 3) assigning representative foresters and biologists to participate in design and implementation of experiments. For this project, all three of the major pulp and paper companies in northern Minnesota (Boise Cascade, Blandin-UPM and Potlatch) will cooperate on this project. Lake County is also participating on this project. The value of the cooperators in-kind investment in this project is about $57,000. This represents costs for land-use, forest inventory and other data, and staff time.

The $300,000 allocation from LCMR will be used to compile and analyze existing biotic data to develop indicators to assess forest and water resources health and sustainability. This information will be applied to develop a decision support program that can be used by resource planners across the State.

VII. Investigators

JoAnn Hanowski, NRRI will contribute 50% effort to the project. She will be responsible for managing project staff and leading the avian portion of the data compilation and analyses (see attachment A).

George Host, NRRI will contribute 15% time to the project. He will provide expertise and data for the ecological classification system, head up the development of metrics for soil productivity, and coordinate the EMDS model (see attachment B).

Lucinda Johnson, NRRI will contribute 20% effort to the project. She will be responsible for identifying applicable data sources on amphibians and take the lead on developing water quality metrics (see attachment C).

Carl Richards, NRRI will contribute 15% time to the project. He will provide data on aquatic invertebrates and identify additional applicable data on in stream biota. He will also help develop metrics for water quality (see attachment D).

Potlatch Corporation, Cloquet, MN, will contribute $12,000 in-kind dollars to the project. Mike Houser will represent Potlatch in this effort.

UPM-Blandin Company, Grand Rapids, MN, will contribute $23,000 in-kind dollars to the project. Jim Marshall will their representative.

Tom Martinson will represent Lake County Land Department, Two Harbors, MN. An estimate of their in-kind support is $7,000.

Boise Cascade, International Falls, MN, will contribute $15,000 in-kind dollars to the project. Steve Earley will be their representative.

Cairns, J. and J. R. Pratt. 1993. A history of biological monitoring using benthic macroinvertebrates. Pp 10-27 In D.M. Rosenberg and V.R. Resh (eds) Freshwater biomonitoring and benthic macroinvertebrates. Chapman & Hall, New York.

Furness, R. W. and J.J.D. Greenwood. 1993. Birds as monitors of environmental change? Chapman & Hall, London.

Niemi, G., A. Lima, J. Hanowski and L. Pfannmuller. 1996. Recent trends of breeding birds in Minnesota and Minnesota forested regions, 1966-1993. Loon 67: 191-201.

Niemi, G., J. Hanowski, R. Howe, D. McKenney, D. Mladenoff, C. Smith, L. Venier and D. Welsh. 1998. Forest bird biodiversity: Indicators of environmental condition and change in the Great Lakes Watershed. Final Report to Great Lakes Protection Fund, Chicago, IL.

Richards, C., R. Haro., L.B. Johnson, and G. Host. 1997. Catchment and reach-scale properties as indicators of macroinvertebrate species traits. Freshwater Biology 37:219-230.

and biota. Canadian J. Fisheries Aquatic Sciences 53(Suppl 1) 53:295-311.

Richards, C., L.B. Johnson, and G.E. Host. 1995. Using GIS to examine linkages between landscapes and ecosystems. Pages 131-141. In: National Conference on Environmental Problem-Solving with Geographic Information Systems, EPA 625/R-95/004.